When an oil spill occurs at sea, the first and primary concern of response planners is to determine where the oil is likely to go? That is, what is the slick direction, and speed of movement and what are the weathering and spreading characteristics of the oil under the influence of prevailing currents and weather conditions? In near-shore marine environments, the tracking of oil spills likely to impact the shoreline is of prime importance for effective planning and deployment of oil spill response personnel and equipment to protect environmentally sensitive areas; oil spill models provide essential information to both planning and response teams.
PESCo's Central Advisory Divison maintains and operates the world's leading modelling solution, ASA's OilMapTM 2012 edition.
PESCo can provide its clients with Trjaectory and Fates models in addition to stochastic modelling which is used for contingency planning.
The trajectory and fates model predicts the transport and weathering of oil from instantaneous or continuous spills. Predictions show the location and concentration of the surface and subsurface oil versus time. The model estimates the temporal variation of the oil’s spatial coverage, oil thickness, and oil viscosity. The model also predicts the oil mass balance or the amount of oil on the free surface, in the water column, evaporated, on the shore, and outside the study domain versus time. The fate processes in the model include spreading, evaporation, entrainment or natural dispersion, and emulsification. On the other hand, the stochastic model generates multiple simulations within a time window to determine the most likely paths released oil would follow under the influence of winds and currents.
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